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Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that divided the nation and triggered turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.

That is the message from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Institutions Not Ready

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."

New Title Seeks to Stir Debate

The team have studied the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to stir debate on the matter with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have gained."

Legal Framework

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a national vote.

Lack of Serious Debate

Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, said McBride.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or activists want to engage with the basics. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the book, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. Each writes two articles that seek neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and societal figures, previous instances and constitutional models.

Arguments encompass national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and encourage discussion.

"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.

"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.

Probability of Public Vote

The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win here and the other side will eventually lose but each side has got valuable insights to learn from the alternative arguments."

Appeal for Broader Discussion

Westminster needed to participate in the debate, stated the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."